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What if Russia IS in deep internal trouble?
For a while, I'm exercising the thought that not all is honky-dory in the Russian empire. Of course, the pro-Russian narrative claims that Putin handled the situation extremely well and possibly this was all staged but that is just the Russian narrative. There is also the Western narrative that Russia is going to collapse. You know the drill. They are on the verge of a catastrophe for almost 500 days...
To be honest, probably neither of those is correct but one has to assume the worst outcome and to my understanding, the falling of Russia would be that outcome. Why? I will clarify this in two simple points:
They are a nuclear Super Power
If in doubt check point 1.
The nuclear arsenal is spread all over various regions and the central government keeps everything in order. If a sudden turmoil would occur and in the end, Russia would be broken into many independent states who would control all of those weapons?
The destruction of Russia was going well during the Boris Yeltsin reign but someone in the Russian Deep State has decided that enough is enough and here we are 23 years later. Collapsing Russia will not be as easy as it was more than two decades ago. China is close to Russia and one can assume that Xi wouldn't like to have for instance a dozen nuclear neighbors instead of one Russia.
The "Putin is weak mantra" might end very badly for us as Russians might exchange him for a hardliner. Prigo was a hardliner and was pushing for more decisive actions. We have to also point out that the hopes with Navalny are funny as he is a Russian nationalist. He looks better and would present better on TV but when you follow him more closely he seems scary. In the end, he might be "made up" as he is supposed to sit in the gulag but he is still active so that looks fishy, to say the least.
All in all, it is very hard to tell what is going on under the Russian carpet. Most certainly there is some power struggle but who is fighting with whom and who has the upper hand is not shown to us.
Let us wait and see how all of this will play out. Right now there is no point in producing wild speculations and projecting one's wishful thinking as reality.