War in Ukraine: false assumptions lead to false conclusions
There is a repeated theme that Ukraine has a much better position to move forces around than Russia. Often maps are shown that Ukraine can push its forces on shorter lines and an assumption is made that Russia has to move units for instance from Krimea or Zaporozhye to Siversk and back and do it on much longer distances. Even col. Markus Reisner whom I find very reliable repeats that assumption in his latest video.
Often I'm a contrarian, and here is my claim - the above assumption is wrong. As sometimes a picture is worth more than 1000 words here it is:
There are various assumptions printed into our heads but we have to move past those memes. The constant underestimating of Russia won't bring us anywhere. Sure, they have performed worse than expected, but they are far from being weak, out of ammo, out of soldiers, out of tanks, and other equipment. They hold defensive positions and strengthen them each day. Never underestimate your enemy. The West is constantly doing it, and here we are getting closer to the 500th day of the war. We can see that this attitude doesn't work. It's time to regroup and rethink our posture towards Russia and maybe admit that they are not as stupid as we are presented and as weak as we fought and that combating them might not be feasible the way it's been done for more than a year.
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